The emergence of oxygen loss is very likely smaller in area for the RCP2.6 scenario in the 21st century and by 2090 the emerged area is declining. Imperfect representation of local processes and sea ice interaction in global climate models limit the ability to project the response of specific polar areas and the precise timing of undersaturation at seasonal scales. Microsofts Activision Blizzard deal is key to the companys mobile gaming efforts. Climate change, new polar interests from outside the regions, and an increasingly active role played by informal organisations are compelling stronger coordination and integration between different levels and sectors of governance. [27][60] Furthermore, it requires measures like adaptation of economic subsidy schemes, and the creation of opportunities for conservation finance, to name a few. Methane will contribute a small proportion of these additional carbon emissions, on the order of 0.010.06 Gt CH4 yr-1, but could contribute 4070% of the total permafrost-affected radiative forcing because of its higher warming potential. 2015. Beyond 2100, sea level will continue to rise for centuries due to continuing deep ocean heat uptake and mass loss of the GIS and AIS and will remain elevated for thousands of years (high confidence). While NBS are successful in flood management, a majority of case studies and examples of NBS are from the Global North, resulting in a lack of data for many medium- and low-income nations. (2006), Nipah virus: Impact, origins, and causes of emergence, Current Infectious Disease Reports, Vol.8/1, pp.59-65, http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11908-006-0036-2. Specific impacts on the stocks and economic value in both regions will depend on future climate change and on the strategies employed to manage the effects on stocks and ecosystems (, ). Summer melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) has increased since the 1990s (very high confidence) to a level unprecedented over at least the last 350 years, and two-to-fivefold the pre-industrial level (medium confidence). Examples include innovative planning of agricultural landscapes to increase their multi-functionality; using existing agrobiodiversity to increase biodiversity, connectivity, and resilience in landscapes; and approaches for enhancing tree species and genetic diversity to increase forest resilience to extreme events. From Greenland, the 20122016 ice losses (247 15 Gt yr-1) were similar to those from 2002 to 2011 (263 21 Gt yr-1) and extremely likely greater than from 1992 to 2001 (8 82 Gt yr-1). The crops are grown on a small plot of land year after year using human and animal labor. [106] CBD (1992), The Convention on Biological Diversity. Increased ITF has been linked to Pacific cooling trends and basin-wide warming trends in the Indian Ocean. More recently, progress has been made in better articulating the benefits Nature-based solutions can provide for human well-being. The warming trend is further confirmed by the improved ocean temperature measurements over the last decade. [27] Patz,J. and S.Olson (2006), Malaria risk and temperature: Influences from global climate change and local land use practices, National Academy of Sciences, http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0601493103. The framework is based on scientific evidence that human Poorly construed policies will entrench or exacerbate the key drivers of biodiversity loss changes in land and sea use, overexploitation, climate change, pollution and invasive alien species thereby driving up risks to society. Experimenting, assessing, and continually refining practices while strengthening the links with decision making has the potential to ready society for the expected and unexpected impacts of climate change (, The tightly coupled relationship of northern local communities and their environment provide an opportunity to better understand climate change and its effects, support adaptation and limit unintended consequences. Snow cover duration has declined in nearly all regions, especially at lower elevations, on average by 5 days per decade, with a likely2range from 010 days per decade. (2019), Global wildlife trade across the tree of life, Science, Vol.366/6461, pp.71-76, http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.aav5327. This section presents 4 action areas and 11 specific actions to guide policy makers as they plan the recovery from the pandemic. Our scientists conduct cutting-edge biological, economic, and oceanographic research. [11] Zhang,T., Q.Wu and Z.Zhang (2020), Probable Pangolin Origin of SARS-CoV-2 Associated with the COVID-19 Outbreak, Current Biology, Vol.30/7, pp.1346-1351.e2, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cub.2020.03.022. [50] WEF (2020), The Global Risks Report 2020, World Economic Forum, https://www.weforum.org/reports/the-global-risks-report-2020 (accessed on 1September2020). Xiii + 97 pp. There are a total of 17 international partners involved, including the Technical University of Crete (Project Leader), the University of Helsinki and BiodivERsA. [13] Karesh,W. etal. The largest mangrove forest in the world is Sundarban Mangrove Forest. The ecosystem approach is a strategy for the integrated management of land, water and living resources that promotes conservation and sustainable use in an equitable way. There is low confidence in changes in the future frequency of tropical cyclones at the global scale. The programme aims to provide up to 11000 jobs controlling invasive species (e.g. While there is no universal definition, the One Health Commission defines it as a collaborative, multi-sectoral, and trans-disciplinary approach working at local, regional, national, and global levels to achieveoptimal health and well-being outcomes recognizing the interconnections between people, animals, plants and their shared environment (One Health Commission, 2020[91]). During 19702017, the Southern Ocean south of 30S accounted for 3543% of the global ocean heat gain in the upper 2000 m (high confidence), despite occupying ~25% of the global ocean area. These high rates challenge the implementation of adaptation measures that involve a long lead time, but this has not yet been studied in detail. Countries responses to the COVID-19 pandemic have weighty implications for society today and for generations to come. Effective SLR responses depend, first, on taking a long-term perspective when making short-term decisions, explicitly accounting for uncertainty of locality-specific risks beyond 2050 (high confidence), and building governance capabilities to tackle the complexity of SLR risk (medium evidence, high agreement). [63] This conference aimed to strengthen synergies among various recent initiatives and programs related to NBS launched by the European Commission and by the EU Member States, focusing on policy and governance of NBS, research, and innovation. Social barriers (including governance challenges) to adaptation are already encountered. The use of the term ecoregion is an outgrowth of a surge of interest in ecosystems and their functioning. {5.2.3, 5.3}, Warming-induced range expansion of tropical species to higher latitudes has led to increased grazing on some coral reefs, rocky reefs, seagrass meadows and epipelagic ecosystems, leading to altered ecosystem structure (medium confidence). Under the high emissions scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)8.5) the impacts by 2090 are substantially larger and more widespread than for the low emissions scenario (RCP2.6) throughout the surface and deep ocean, including: warming (virtually certain); ocean acidification (virtually certain); decreased stability of mineral forms of calcite (virtually certain); oxygen loss (very likely); reduced near-surface nutrients (likely as not); decreased net primary productivity (high confidence); reduced fish production (likely) and loss of key ecosystems services (medium confidence) that are important for human well-being and sustainable development. Changes in Arctic sea ice have the potential to influence mid-latitude weather (medium confidence), but there is low confidence in the detection of this influence for specific weather types. The feasibility of climate mitigation by open ocean fertilisation of productivity is limited to negligible, due to the likely decadal-scale return to the atmosphere of nearly all the extra carbon removed, associated difficulties in carbon accounting, risks of unintended side effects and low acceptability. ISBN 9781910455555., Australian Veterinary Journal, Vol.96/7, pp.251-251, http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/avj.12699. Some countries have introduced subsidies potentially harmful to biodiversity (e.g. A lake ecosystem or lacustrine ecosystem includes biotic (living) plants, animals and micro-organisms, as well as abiotic (non-living) physical and chemical interactions. {3.5.1, 3.5.2, 3.5.4}, Institutional arrangements that provide for strong multiscale linkages with Arctic local communities can benefit from including indigenous knowledge and local knowledge in the formulation of adaptation strategies (high confidence). Pollution prevention and control, 6. Human responses to climate change in the polar regions occur in a fragmented governance landscape. In response to COVID-19, some countries are introducing regulatory measures that promote the conservation, sustainable use and restoration of biodiversity. White-footed mice tend to reach higher abundances in degraded and fragmented forests where species diversity is low. In the United States, areas with high avian diversity are associated with lower rates of mosquito infection and incidence of human disease. Important differences in the trajectories of loss emerge from 2050 onwards, depending on mitigation measures taken (high confidence). The ocean is the home of biodiversity ranging from microbes to marine mammals that form a wide variety of ecosystems in open pelagic and coastal ocean. It is very likely that both the Southern Ocean and the Arctic Ocean will experience year-round conditions of surface water undersaturation for mineral forms of calcium carbonate by 2100 under RCP8.5; under RCP2.6 the extent of undersaturated waters are reduced markedly. [64] New Zealand Ministry for the Environment (2020), Jobs for Nature, https://www.mfe.govt.nz/funding/jobs-for-nature (accessed on 1September2020). Over large sectors of the seasonally ice-free Arctic, summer upper mixed layer temperatures increased at around 0.5C per decade during 19822017, primarily associated with increased absorbed solar radiation accompanying sea ice loss, and the inflow of ocean heat from lower latitude increased since the 2000s (high confidence). For example, Germanys International Climate Initiative (IKI) is implementing a EUR68million Corona Response Package that will provide, among other things, financial support for the conservation of nature reserves in IKI partner countries to address the immediate impact of COVID-19 (Platform 2020 Redesign, 2020[101]). In some Arctic areas, such expansions have affected the whole fish community, leading to higher competition and predation on smaller sized fish species, while some commercial fisheries have benefited. Crossing a planetary boundary comes at the risk of abrupt environmental change. For example, Austria has committed EUR 350 million (USD407million) to fund research projects that help enhance climate adaption of forests, including measures to protect and enhance biodiversity and increase natural forest protected areas. Our scientists conduct cutting-edge biological, economic, and oceanographic research. The world is facing its sixth mass extinction event, with one million plant and animal species now threatened with extinction due to changes in land and sea-use, overexploitation, climate change, pollution and invasive alien species (Diaz etal., 2019[4]). Individual companies may face additional risks such as regulatory and liability risks, reputational risks and market risks due to changing consumer preferences. Land-use change resulting from agricultural expansion, logging, infrastructure development and other human activities is the most common driver of infectious disease emergence, accounting for approximately one third of all emerging disease events(Loh etal., 2015[6]). The ROE presents two indicators to address the ground water question: Permitting hydrology, a technical reference document for determination of probable hydrologic consequence (PHC) and cumulative hydrologic impact assessments (CHIA) (PDF), Conservation of the North American cave and karst biota (PDF). [52] It had been a practice in Kolkata, one of the five largest cities in India, for the municipal authorities to pump sewage into shallow ponds (bheris). Third, prioritising consideration of social vulnerability and equity underpins efforts to promote fair and just climate resilience and sustainable development (, ) and can be helped by creating safe community arenas for meaningful public deliberation and conflict resolution (, ). Changes in the ocean and cryosphere, the ecosystem services that they provide, the drivers of those changes, and the risks to marine, coastal, polar and mountain ecosystems, occur on spatial and temporal scales that may not align within existing governance structures and practices (medium confidence). {6.9}, Climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction require capacity building and an integrated approach to ensure trade-offs between short- and long-term gains in dealing with the uncertainty of increasing extreme events, abrupt changes and cascading impacts at different geographic scales (high confidence). 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Seagrass meadows (high confidence) and kelp forests (high confidence) will face moderate to high risk at temperature above 1.5oC global sea surface warming. Over the past decades, studies focusing on biodiversity-ecosystem functioning relationships (BEF) have gained much attention due to the unprecedented loss of biodiversity caused by human activities (Cardinale et al., 2012; Duffy et al., 2016, 2017).Freshwater ecosystems are among the most important on Earth (Dudgeon et al., 2006), occupying <1% of Under changing climatic conditions there are limits to the effectiveness of ecosystem-based adaptation, and these limits are currently difficult to determine. {2.3.2, 2.3.3}, River runoff in snow dominated and glacier-fed river basins will change further in amount and seasonality in response to projected snow cover and glacier decline (very high confidence) with negative impacts on agriculture, hydropower and water quality in some regions (medium confidence). The term "Nature-Based Solutions" was put forward by practitioners in the late 2000s, [4] Elliott, W.R. 2000. Globally, marine heat related events have increased; marine heatwaves, defined when the daily sea surface temperature exceeds the local 99th percentile over the period 1982 to 2016, have doubled in frequency and have become longer-lasting, more intense and more extensive (very likely). (1) Te Mana o te Wai is a concept that refers to the fundamental importance of water and recognises that protecting the health of freshwater protects the health and well-being of the wider environment. {5.2.4, Box 5.2}, Anthropogenic changes in EBUS will emerge primarily in the second half of the 21st century (medium confidence). Observed rate of range shifts since the 1950s and its very likely range are estimated to be 51.5 33.3 km per decade and 29.0 15.5 km per decade for organisms in the epipelagic and seafloor ecosystems, respectively. As a consequence, the concept of NBS is gaining acceptance outside the conservation community (e.g. This means having an effectively structured and operational framework containing specific, measurable and ambitious targets. climate change, waste management, water and air pollution etc.) The intensity of marine heatwaves is projected to increase about 10-fold under RCP8.5 by 20812100, relative to 18501900 (medium confidence). By 2100, near-surface permafrost area will decrease by 266% for RCP2.6 and 3099% for RCP8.5. Seaweed aquaculture warrants further research attention. Variability and decline in natural snow cover have compromised the operation of low-elevation ski resorts (, ). {5.2.2.3}, Oxygen is projected to decline further. Read about the Mangrove importance, cover and conservation in India. {3.5.3, 3.5.4}. It is, the ocean warming has continued in the abyssal and deep ocean below 2000 m (southern hemisphere and Southern Ocean). wilding pines, wallabies and stoats), and protecting and restoring habitat on private and public conservation land (New Zealand Ministry for the Environment, 2020[64]). IUCN (International Union for Conservation of Nature). While reductions in labour taxes to support struggling businesses and maintain jobs during this crisis may be sound policy, reducing biodiversity-relevant taxes is not. Success in implementing such management options depends on the participation of relevant stakeholders, including affected communities, diverse knowledge and adequate tools for monitoring and projecting future conditions, and financial and institutional resources to support planning and implementation (medium confidence). There is increasing evidence of an increase in the seasonal exposure to acidified conditions in the future (, increase in the amplitude of seasonal cycle of hydrogen iron concentrations of 7190% by 2100, relative to 2000 for the RCP8.5 scenario, especially at high latitudes. {5.4.1}, Projected decreases in global marine animal biomass and fish catch potential could elevate the risk of impacts on income, livelihood and food security of the dependent human communities (medium confidence). To avoid future pandemics and other crises, maintaining or stepping-up regulations on land-use change, wildlife trade and polluting activities is critical. [38] Scheffers,B. etal. Rain-on-snow floods will occur earlier in spring and later in autumn, and be more frequent at higher elevations and less frequent at lower elevations (high confidence). When the recovery rate of resources is unlikely to ever exceed a human time scale, these are called perpetual {6.7, Figure 6.8}, Climate change is modifying multiple types of climate-related events or hazards in terms of occurrence, intensity and periodicity. On the one hand, public spending on these sectors in the absence of environmental considerations risks entrenching or exacerbating pre-COVID-19 unsustainable practices and trajectories, driving further biodiversity loss. In the Arctic Ocean, the area corrosive to organisms that form shells and skeletons using the mineral aragonite expanded between the 1990s and 2010, with instances of extreme aragonite undersaturation. Biodiversity1 and human infectious diseases are intricately linked. {4.2.2.5, 4.2.3.4}, Under favourable conditions, marshes and mangroves have been found to keep pace with fast rates of SLR (e.g., >10 mm yr, ), but this capacity varies significantly depending on factors such as wave exposure of the location, tidal range, sediment trapping, overall sediment availability and coastal squeeze, Effective protection requires investments on the order of tens to several hundreds of billions of USD yr, ). [6] They also provide nursery zones for marine life that can be the basis for sustaining fisheries on which local populations may depend. Downloadable from. It is important, however, that efforts to increase the volume of biodiversity-positive stimulus measures are accompanied by efforts to reduce the volume of stimulus flowing to biodiversity-harmful activities. These ecosystems provide important services that include coastal protection and habitat for diverse biota. The natural capacity of ecosystems to adapt to climate impacts may be limited by human activities that fragment wetland habitats and restrict landward migration (high confidence). The 0700 m and 7002000 m layers of the ocean have warmed by 3.22 1.61 ZJ and 0.97 0.64 ZJ from 1969to 1993, and 6.28 0.48 ZJ and 3.86 2.09ZJ from 1993 to 2017. {1.1, 1.5, 1.6, Cross-Chapter Box 2 in Chapter 1}, AR5 assessed that the ocean is warming (0, and Antarctic ice sheets are losing mass (, ), sea ice extent in the Arctic is decreasing (, ), Northern Hemisphere snow cover is decreasing (, ), and permafrost temperatures are increasing (, ). {4.4.2.2, 4.4.2.3., 4.4.2.3.2, 4.4.2.5, 4.4.2.6, 4.4.3, Cross-Chapter Box 9}, The large uncertainties about post 2050 SLR, and the substantial impact expected, challenge established planning and decision making practises and introduce the need for coordination within and between governance levels and policy domains. It also poses a significant risk to supply chains, businesses and the global economy. Over the past decades, studies focusing on biodiversity-ecosystem functioning relationships (BEF) have gained much attention due to the unprecedented loss of biodiversity caused by human activities (Cardinale et al., 2012; Duffy et al., 2016, 2017).Freshwater ecosystems are among the most important on Earth (Dudgeon et al., 2006), occupying <1% of given that tropical forests are rich reservoirs of biodiversity and key ecosystem services 27. Resulting landslides and floods, and cascading events, will also emerge where there is no record of previous events (, ). To effectively screen, monitor and evaluate stimulus measures, countries could also draw on green budgeting initiatives and the EU Sustainable Taxonomy. Further research needs to be conducted in the Global South to determine the efficacy of NBS on climate, social and ecological standards. Denver, CO: U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management, National Applied Resource Sciences Center. {4.1, 4.4.4.3}, Adaptation experience to date demonstrates that using a locally appropriate combination of decision analysis, land use planning, public participation and conflict resolution approaches can help to address the governance challenges faced in responding to SLR (high confidence). While a slower rate of SLR enables greater opportunities for adapting, adaptation benefits are also expected to vary between coastal settings. [62] The project is part of the EUs Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation programme, and will run for 3 years. Ecological systems, such as climate change, waste prevention and recycling, 5 pp.696-705, http:. 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