Now everything can be attributed to climate change, and frequently is. Youre going to like this greatly expanded edition of Hot Talk, Cold Science. Both the calculated by equation and the satellite measured Earths mean surface temperatures are almost identical: https://www.cristos-vournas.com. . The UK was talking about removing the ban on fracking, but that industry doesnt exist. I prefer to comment rather than give advice to people. Below are the proper citations for this page according to four style manuals (in alphabetical order): the Modern Language Association Style Manual (MLA), the Chicago Manual of Style (Chicago), the Publication Manual of the American Psychological Association (APA), and Kate Turabian's A Manual for Writers of Term Papers, Theses, and Dissertations (Turabian). I was besmirched. NY 10036. Live Science is supported by its audience. Becoming familiar with the voluminous literature and data that point to no catastrophic conditions in the next century or two has allowed me to do that. You told JamesS that you wanted to join the conversation. Who is the author? This study alone should convince you, https://climatethetruth.com/2016/01/04/20th-century-global-temps-likely-due-to-natural-variation/. (2009)2, "Based on well-established evidence, about 97% of climate scientists have concluded that human-caused climate change is happening." Javier: Most climate scientists do not research paleoclimatology, so they dont have a professional opinion on the LIA and its causes.. 24 Nc3 Ng5! A random error is an observed or actual value that differ from the expected actual or observed value. There is also NOBODY, as far as I know, who has contradicted any of its obvious and totally mathematically correct conclusions. Which was that you were wrong. There is implicit in chaos the risk of dramatic and rapid change in the Earth system atmosphere, biosphere, cryosphere and hydrosphere. Two publications examining the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) have recently been published in Climate Dynamics: Scafetta, N. (2022a). https://www.cristos-vournas.com, Remember, then, that scientific thought is the guide to action; that the truth at which it arrives is not that which we can ideally contemplate without error, but that which we can act upon without fear; and you cannot fail to see that scientific thought is not an accompaniment or condition of human progress, but human progress itself. William Kingdon Clifford, The Common Sense of the Exact Sciences (1885). It concluded, in part, that rising temperatures, extreme heat, drought, wildfire on rangelands, and heavy downpours are expected to increase and that [w]ithout adaptation, climate change will continue to degrade infrastructure performance over the rest of the century, with the potential for cascading impacts that threaten our economy, national security, essential services, and health and well-being. [186] The Trump administration criticized the report, stating that its not based on facts Its not data-driven. OPEC Fund Bulletin, Hot Talk, Cold Science is essential reading for those who wish to be fully informed about global warming. American Journal of Gastroenterology (Springer Nature) . Time you moved into the 21st century Geoff? (Image credit: Nicolle Rager Fuller, National Science Foundation), Scientists are studing how the Sun effects Earths climate. Global Change Research Program (Melillo et al., 2014) that global climate has warmed in response to increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases Human activities (mainly greenhouse-gas emissions) are the dominant cause of the rapid warming since the middle 1900s (IPCC, 2013)." He would do well to contemplate on my comment above. I have never cherry picked an argument in my life. The surprising thing about Hot Talk, Cold Science is that it is easy to read and never boring, even though Singer included very detailed charts and graphs whose details are of greatest interest to the scientifically trained. [201] An analysis by Rhodium Group predicted the lowered standards would result in about 20% of the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions that were expected under the Obama-era standards. Dear Dr. Nicola Scafetta, thank you very much for your research. Others believe what the IPCC says. Dr. Singer, Dr. Legates and Dr. Lupo bring science and reason to a debate that has increasingly been driven by panic and politics. Temperature reconstructions of the NH over the last 1000 to 2000 years certainly dont show anywhere near this much variability. So, discussing acceleration over the century doesnt make much sense. state-of-the-art. I happen to think those are interesting and relevant topics. The biggest weakness is the obvious refusal of those promoting alarm to allow the questioning that is the heart of science. You claim it has correct physics. Do you really think that people go around living their lives not honouring their commitments. A lot of indicators are suggesting that global warming has slowed down in the last 3 years consistent with producing La Nina weather patterns [a prerequisite]. Heres part of the explanation, but I suggest you read the whole paper, which is well argued, well documented, and as far as I know uncontested or contradicted by any other study. In other words, instead of an orbital tilt causing climate change, such as the one that took place in the African continent, current changes in climate could end up causing changes in the Earth's axial tilt. It will take you about three hours to study dozens of pages in my seven papers wherein, as you could have guessed, you will find the relevant physics, and there is a AU $10,000 reward for the first to prove me wrong about the heat creep process and the fact that water vapor cools rather than warms the surface. Singers masterful analysis decisively shows that the pessimistic, and often alarming, global warming scenarios depicted in the media have no scientific basis. The Arctic is being affected by climate change more than most places on Earth. . J0shu@, 1f u have found the @nswer to the filter let us know. For those with a knowledge of physics, they use the Stefan-Boltzmann Law incorrectly when they add to the solar flux an additional flux nearly twice as great coming from the atmosphere and they then use this total (after deducting that for non-radiative surface cooling) in Stefan-Boltzmann calculations to explain the global mean surface temperature. Contrails The effects of 911 in respect of contrails was subject to little discussion at the time. Very good cb players may recognise a smokescreen as a possible ploy instead. We might also need to leave aside the fact that if our next 4000 quads come from coal we might be ruined, as some advertise. At least before she realized that he was taking tail risk more srsly than just about everyone else. Unfortunately, this is a subject with significant political and economic interests that are well known to twist what is right and wrong. The moderator at your site asked you to drop the subject, remember? Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations are not forever. The CO2 standards set in 2012 required an annual 5% increase in fuel efficiency to reach 54.5 miles per gallon by 2025. Based on the aforementioned findings, it was determined that the surface-based temperature records may be at least 10% off when it comes to actual warming. Eventually, a group of hypotheses might be integrated and generalized into a scientific theory, a scientifically acceptable general principle or body of principles offered to explain phenomena. Consider viewing my 15 minute video. The third edition of his highly readable and scientifically sound book, Hot Talk, Cold Science, has just been published, by the Independent Institute. Perhaps thats why virtually none of the truly great climate scientists who really know what they are talking about and document it with hundreds and hundreds of seminal studies and papers over decades call themselves climate scientists! "Observations throughout the world make it clear that climate change is occurring, and rigorous scientific research demonstrates that the greenhouse gases emitted by human activities are the primary driver." The modelers have had ample opportunity to correct their models. They were treated as gross outliers Pakistans worst flooding in a decade from extreme monsoon rains has caused its largest freshwater lake to overflow. As you can see, most climate scientists do believe it is due to the man-made greenhouse gases. You will receive a verification email shortly. Of great interest, this book demonstrates that at best, the available evidence is sketchy and incomplete. The Ruddiman hypothesis is that is all anthropogenic since the invention of agriculture about 7000 years ago. Early Science on Greenhouse Gasses and Climate Change, Scientists have known of the heating potential (greenhouse effect) of gases such as CO2 since at least 1859, when Irish physicist John Tyndall first began experiments leading to the discovery that CO2 in the atmosphere absorbs the suns heat. The climate change debate, as it discussed in the mainstream media, appears to be divided into two major sides. For example this one: The Earths atmosphere is very thin. The good way to prove the matter is by an example. Thank you for this article, Dr Scaffeta. It will take a long time to turn this around." Except that the systemic error is listed, or assumed, as random. As best I can tell, all the the publicity about the rise in GHGs causing changes in extreme weather is mostly nonsense and certainly doesnt justify spending trillions. For permission, contact us. First, there is more than one location used, second it uses four well-known data sets (GISP, GISP-2, Vostok, and DOME C), and furthermore Lloyd is discussing centennial differences in global temperature not global temperature. In future years with the inevitable post-mortems, one must point an accusatory finger at funding bodies that have uncritically handed out grants like lollies. I believe that some of the existing US agencies like NOAA existed at that time but no academic facilities taught climate studies. Everything points to all the GHG-based models running too hot, the same models which very poorly reproduce complex solar-mediated, mass heat transport based natural multidecadal warming. David Wojick, By It is a fascinating and remarkable voyage over all the central aspects. I wrote about Professor Johnsons research in my peer-reviewed paper Radiated Energy and the Second Law of Thermodynamics which was acclaimed and published on several websites. Geoff S A single site on earth cannot describe the global climate, but it can clearly track changes in global temperatures to a reasonable degree. Since then Rattan Lal estimates that 500 GtC has been lost from cropping and grazing land. Below is an example of a single model run 1000s of times. Dana T. Rohrabacher, former U.S. So in both cases, one can construct a confidence/credible interval for the carbon-14 age by well-known methods (that exhibit perfect probability matching), and then simply transform the endpoints of this interval to calendar years using the calibration curve (which Ill assume is known exactly, since uncertainty in it doesnt seem to really affect the argument). Built quality assured in a factory delivered on a truck refuel at 8.7 years. I grasp the Central Limit Theory. Effects that scientists predicted in the pastloss of sea ice, accelerated sea level rise and longer, more You can continue to discuss whatever you want and so can anyone else. e.g. Testing, Testing: Space-Bound US-European Water Mission Passes Finals. Because 150 ppm is the lowest level at which plant life can survive. Moreover, it is statistically insignificant that a small number of simulations of the medium and high ECS GCMs would seem to coincide with the evidence. Most scientists do not put things in context. So = 1.361 W/m (So is the Solar constant) But Schmidt rejects the idea that there is a point of no return. We can reduce nuclear waste today by using a new, more efficient, fuel composition. In Hot Talk, Cold Science, Singer, Legates and Lupo have provided the intellectual ammunition needed to defeat the well-financed fanatical forces with their frightening false narrative. There is no survey or study showing consensus on any of the most important scientific issues in the climate change debate. This shift in how the Earth circled the Sun affected the amount of sunlight that region of Africa received. Singers masterful analysis decisively shows that the pessimistic, and often alarming, global-warming scenarios depicted in the media have no scientific basis. The lowest region in the planets atmosphere is called the troposphere and there is a fairly uniform rate of cooling with increasing altitude. The stakes are enormous. Random errors will probably not add to zero over a very long time. One must wonder how those billions of dollars spent on climate change research based on such uncertain temperature numbers were ever allowed to go ahead. However, if the real warming is closer to that indicated by the UAH-MSU-lt v6 temperature record, or if the climate system is controlled by multidecadal and millennial natural oscillations that the GCMs are unable to replicate, it is possible that the ECS may be much lower (for example, 1-2C). Its a regression thing. What is hard about that? Javier thanks the last two explanations seem political, not scientific, I find this extraordinary. But his credentials are impeccable, and one must admire his courage in defying those who use climate as an excuse to advance their destructive agendas. No matter how often the politics of catastrophe, conformity and compliance are refuted by empirical data, new waves of hysteria emerge to sustain the self-fulfilling desire by acolytes to censure society needlessly and punitively. Whos Funding the Climate Lawsuits? In due course I shall encourage you to add a category of man made, deliberately concealed. Somewhere Over the Rainbow Because Climate Change! I am also conviced we have seen already most of the warming during the past 170 years, and we are going to see a lot less warming than anticipated for the rest of the century. In the fall of 2010, that number had increased to 26 percent. Ugly building, no style, no view, what were the architects thinking? They agree, for example, that human activity has increased levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere; and that the leading greenhouse gas is water vapor (which along with atmospheric CO2 has kept the oceans from freezing over). Geoff S. Geoff, good to know. We do not rule out the natural forcings at work, he said, but there isn't enough quantitative evidence to say that natural forcings are the dominant cause of current climate change. Pointing out the geopolitical sensitivity of the topic itself, Mufti was careful not to rule out anthropogenic effects. Derived policies will result in huge expenditure, little discernible effect on climate and negative effects on the standard of living. Trees have long been known to buffer humans from the worst effects of climate change by pulling carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. In fact if the machine or algorithm is not working properly the random error might be the only true value ever recorded! More questions than answers sums it all up. And the only thing that they find is the 0.1C change that is the accepted effect of the solar cycle.. . Detection of non-climatic biases in land surface temperature records by comparing climatic data and their model simulations. With that said, multiple studies published in peer-reviewed scientific journals1 show that climate-warming trends over the past century are extremely likely due to human activities. The south Pacific gyre connects salt content in a Law Dome Antarctica ice core with ENSO and eastern Australian rainfall. Apropos our man of feigned impugned dignity fluttering across all threads on his injured wing demanding satisfaction. Isotope measurements have a precision of the order of 1 per thousand, which would suggest a temperature precision of the order of 0.3oC at temperatures of ~300K. The number is on the page. Madhav L. Khandekar, former Research Scientist, Environment Canada; Expert Reviewer, IPCC 2007 Climate Change Documents; Member, Editorial Board, Journal of Natural Hazards, In Hot Talk, Cold Science, Fred Singer, David Legates and Anthony Lupo make a strong case that politics, not sound science, is in the drivers seat of the fears of dangerous, manmade climate change. It seems therefore unlikely that climate policy will change any time soon. We are talking about bets. (So would I). https://www.c2es.org/site/assets/uploads/2012/02/climate-change-adaptation-what-federal-agencies-are-doing.pdf. Both were rejected in the following years by everyone. [196] The student movement started by Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg continued on Sep. 20, 2019 with an estimated four million demonstrators in at least 160 countries calling for action on climate change, an event that is thought to be the largest climate protest in history to that point. It is wrong to say that errors must balance out. But, AGW is in the eye of the beholder, so the severity can be anything. A 21st century prototype gas-cooled FMR by 2030? Fortunately, some like Dr. Singer still prefer the joys and value of scientific inquiry. Nothing better illustrates the fact that we are dealing with a political cum religious cult rather than science where the quest for power overwhelms scientific inquiry. Anyway a now deleted challenge to Javiers description seems to have got me a site ban, tragically. So I thought Id provide. Consequently,anyreduction in the CO2content of the atmosphere will negatively impact the current state of nature, reducing not only the growth of plants, but other benefits brought about by higher CO2concentrations. A best fit reduced centuries of testing to bs. NASA Dust Detective Delivers First Maps From Space for Climate Science. The claim of scientific consensus on the causes and consequences of climate change is without merit. Its strange how the UN claims to actually own the science of climate change and have partnered with Google to make sure that all possible competitors are squeezed out under the guise of misinformation yet they still have to get the media to lie about the science which they say they own! What happened was that the best fit or trend line had discarded an important test result that was full of information. Dr. Singer offers informed speculation (but notes that his hypothesis is counterintuitive and has yet to be tested). Since systematic scientific assessments began in the 1970s, the influence of human activity on the warming of the climate system has evolved from theory to established fact.13-17, The following page lists the nearly 200 worldwide scientific organizations that hold the position that climate change has been caused by human action. Anecdotally this has been the opinion since they were first produced. Microsofts Activision Blizzard deal is key to the companys mobile gaming efforts. answerable. What motivates them? I expect Jim will be screaming for cheap power of any kind if we dont get a wriggle on. All of which is why the AGW hypothesis fails- an inability to falsify the null hypothesis means all global warming can be explained by natural causes. Im on the side of sophisticated analysis of these two different things by the BOM. President Trump said the Paris Agreement had imposed draconian financial and economic burdens on the United States and created serious obstacles to energy development. It matters little in the context of temperature series. CMIP6 GCM ensemble members versus global surface temperatures. Javier, did you read the paper How much has the Sun influenced Northern Hemisphere temperature trends? One use of confidence limits is for rejection of hypotheses before they become too formalized. [130], On June 23, 1988 National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) scientist James Hansen presented testimony to the US Senate stating that increases in CO2 were warming the planet and changing our climate. [131][132] At the time, MIT meteorologist Richard Lindzen criticized these findings, arguing that computerized climate models were unreliable and that natural processes would balance out any warming caused by increased CO2. Remember? After explaining, this is what a Swiss climate scientist told me: From my point of view it is always important to show that the natural forcing inducing climate change (sun, volcanoes) on the decadal to centennial scale are much smaller in the present days than the man-made greenhouse gases. The dartboard argument that every spot has an equal chance of the dart hitting it and as their are infinite spots to target the chance of it hitting any one spot in particular is zero. Im aware that it should take a lot of energy to drill with a directed energy beam so it wont be free. While it is not illegal not to play any CB move or to repeat the same move over and over again, it only works if you are already winning. Grow more livestock ffs, This link has the basics: https://www.facebook.com/melitamegalithic/photos/a.433731873468290/2093466177494843/ Te = [ (1-a) S / 4 ] (K). You talk utter cr@p as usual and a lot of it. Although other factors like climate and pests can somewhat affect a trees volume, the study found that elevated carbon levels consistently led to an increase of wood volume in 10 different temperate forest groups across the country. Easily done but doesnt add much information to temperature graphs. Global warming and climate change refer to an increase in average global temperatures. Leaving aside some unknowns that will be understood in due course, is it not the case that catastrophic AGW is no longer a matter of scientific controversy, the warming has been largely natural, however, it does remain fiercely contested as a matter of faith to some and a vested financial interest to others? So I hope everyone will stop citing the models and the non-scientific IPCC, which depends entirely on the models for all of their major summary statements. PS: You can find generalized versions of the CLT all over the Internet for non iid stuff, Willard noted If the Central Limit Theorem assumed normality, there would be no need for the CLT. https://watertechbyrie.files.wordpress.com/2021/04/cmip-6-1.png?w=768. This book presents an understandable and balanced review of the science that will leave readers with two conclusions; that our use of fossil fuels is remarkably benign to the environment and essential to the struggling global underclass, and that we have been greatly misled by those entrusted for sound environmental policy. Nature has had the advantage of using enormous pressures and temperatures over thousands of years to produce compact, high energy sources like coal. The most common misuse seems to me to result in invalid applications of both CLT and LOLN by invoking them when they are not appropriate. King Charles & David Attenborough parrot WWF activist nonsense they naively accept as science. We help businesses scale by getting them syndicated and featured on high-authority media outlets. The Midwests best library on freedom and limited government with nearly 20,000 books. . I very enthusiastically recommend the book to everyone who wishes to learn why this debate is anything but settled. Kesten C. Green, Senior Research Fellow, Ehrenberg-Bass Institute, University of South Australia; Co-Director, The Forecasting Principles; former Director, International Institute of Forecasters, Without a doubt climate change continues to be the leading social and scientific topic of our times. Geoff S. There are many types of error deliberate, random and systemic for example A simple extended coin toss will show you that the error at the end of a very long time will be significantly different to zero in almost all cases. So, yes, I want cheap energy. Will the developed country teams jointly admit to causing the worlds bad weather? . 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